Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 76.0¢
- Implied chance
- 76.0%
- Return if right
- 31.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.
YES wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $33.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 26.0¢
- Implied chance
- 26.0%
- Return if right
- 284.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.
NO wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $300.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 29, 10:12 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- El Niño, paired with climate change, 'just makes everything so much more dangerous'France 24 · 1d ago
- El Niño to Crimp Indonesian Palm Oil Output, Producer Group SaysBloomberg · 1d ago
- El Niño climate patterns supercharged by burning of fossil fuels, study findsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Citi Raises Corn, Soybean and Wheat Price Targets as El Niño Risks IntensifyYahoo Finance · 4d ago
- ‘Like smoking a cigarette’: Indonesia chokes on haze as blazes intensify amid super ‘El Niño’The Guardian · 4d ago
- As El Niño Dries Indonesia, Wildfires IntensifyThe New York Times · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/