Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?

Q: Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?

Prediction markets currently price this at 24%. A YES share costs 24.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 313.2% over 1.1mo.

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)$2k liquidity$4k volumecloses 1.1mo

TVEmmysAwardsCulture

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 24.2¢
Implied chance: 24.2%
Return if right: 313.2%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 413.2 shares at 24.2¢ each.

YES wins: $413.22 back, a profit of $313.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $331.03.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 77.8¢
Implied chance: 77.8%
Return if right: 28.5%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 128.5 shares at 77.8¢ each.

NO wins: $128.53 back, a profit of $28.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $30.21.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 08:22 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.