Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.0¢
- Implied chance
- 27.0%
- Return if right
- 270.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 370.4 shares at 27.0¢ each.
YES wins: $370.37 back, a profit of $270.37. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:23 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
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How this market resolves
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?