Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Belarus by December 31, 2027?

• ‘The enemy is tearing our city apart’: terror in Kyiv as Russia ramps up attacksThe Guardian · 1h ago
• Ukraine Reports First Combat Use of Its Own Ballistic MissileThe New York Times · 2h ago
• Ukraine calls for tighter sanctions as Russian attacks spark Kyiv gridlockAl Jazeera · 3h ago
• US Designates Russia's A7 Network as Transnational Criminal OrganizationDecrypt · 5h ago
• Ukraine Attacks Key Russian Refinery and Oil Pipeline HubBloomberg · 5h ago
• Ukraine: Kyiv bridges shut after fatal Russian drone assaultDeutsche Welle · 7h ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Bel…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Talks by December 31, 2027.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.