Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 61.0¢
- Implied chance
- 61.0%
- Return if right
- 63.9%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 163.9 shares at 61.0¢ each.
YES wins: $163.93 back, a profit of $63.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.98 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
NO wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:24 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Romania Extends Reactor Output by Nine Days After Danube BlastsBloomberg · 1d ago
- Dem drops US Senate bid, leaving independent candidate as lone challenger to incumbent GOP Sen Mike RoundsFox News · 5d ago
- South Dakota Senate Democrat drops out, leaving independent candidate to run against RoundsThe Hill · 5d ago
- Julian Beaudion Quits Senate Race in South Dakota, Clearing Way for IndependentThe New York Times · 6d ago
- Democrat drops out of South Dakota’s Senate race, clearing path for independentNBC News · 6d ago
- South Dakota Democrat exits Senate race, clears way for independentPolitico · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent/Technocrat”. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.