Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 52.8¢
- Implied chance
- 52.8%
- Return if right
- 89.4%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 189.4 shares at 52.8¢ each.
YES wins: $189.39 back, a profit of $89.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $96.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 51.1¢
- Implied chance
- 51.1%
- Return if right
- 95.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 195.7 shares at 51.1¢ each.
NO wins: $195.69 back, a profit of $95.69. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $103.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Romania’s political crisis intensifies as Parliament rejects pro-EU PMAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Romania Blood Bonds Target Retail InvestorsBloomberg · 10d ago
- NATO jets scrambled in Poland, Romania as Russia strikes UkraineABC News · 12d ago
- Romania Set to Curb €10 Billion Foreign Debt Sale PlanBloomberg · 19d ago
- Investors Look Past Romania Risk to Pocket Junk-Like YieldsBloomberg · 19d ago
- Russia's drone war comes to Moldova and RomaniaDeutsche Welle · 23d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania was not a sitting member of the Romanian parliament at the time of their appointment as Prime Minister and does not represent or have a clear political affiliation with any Romanian political party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania and a consensus of credible reporting.