Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.3¢
- Implied chance
- 5.3%
- Return if right
- 1786.8%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 1886.8 shares at 5.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1886.79 back, a profit of $1786.79. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $552.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $2339.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.1¢
- Implied chance
- 97.1%
- Return if right
- 3.0%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 103.0 shares at 97.1¢ each.
NO wins: $102.99 back, a profit of $2.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- August 264.2%
- August 100.7%
- No release by August 3148.4%
- the next Google Gemini Pro model0.1%
- the next Google Gemini Pro model0.1%
- the next Google Gemini Pro model0.1%
Latest: Aug 10, 09:05 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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