Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 18, 2026?

Q: Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 18, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 33233.3%.

Next Claude Opus released on...?$864 liquidity$106 volumecloses n/a

AITechClaudeAnthropicAI ReleasesClaude Opus

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.3¢
Implied chance: 0.3%
Return if right: 33233.3%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.

YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $49900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 22, 06:00 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.