Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.2¢
- Implied chance
- 96.2%
- Return if right
- 4.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 104.0 shares at 96.2¢ each.
YES wins: $103.95 back, a profit of $3.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
NO wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $187.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $2309.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 22, 11:34 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.