Will the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?

Q: Will the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 2.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4247.8% over 3.1mo.

Nigerian House of Representatives Election Winner$13k liquidity$164 volumecloses 3.1mo

africaNigeriaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.3¢
Implied chance: 2.3%
Return if right: 4247.8%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.

YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2795.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $7042.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 65%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.42.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 14, 12:01 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in the market options appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates elected under the specified party in the House of Representatives. Seats will not be combined between parties on the basis of endorsements, alliances, coalitions, or other forms of political cooperation. Any changes in party affiliation or seat holdings after the election, including defections, floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, the results of this election are those declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the conclusion of the election, including the results of any supplementary or rerun polls conducted to complete the declaration of results for constituencies initially declared inconclusive. Judicial outcomes after the declaration of results, including any election petition tribunal or appellate ruling that nullifies a result, substitutes a declared winner, or orders a fresh election, will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

Source: https://www.inecnigeria.org/