Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 78.0¢
- Implied chance
- 78.0%
- Return if right
- 28.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 128.2 shares at 78.0¢ each.
NO wins: $128.21 back, a profit of $28.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Supreme Court to hear Missouri redistricting case for third timeFox News · 10h ago
- Missouri congressional map fight returns to Supreme Court for third timeThe Washington Post · 12h ago
- Missouri redistricting fight reaches Supreme Court for third timeThe Hill · 16h ago
- Redrawn Missouri congressional map lands before Supreme Court for third timeCBS News · 18h ago
- Trump-backed Missouri congressional map returns to the Supreme Court againABC News · 23h ago
- Dispute Over Missouri’s Congressional Map Again Returns to Supreme CourtThe New York Times · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).