Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 36.5¢
- Implied chance
- 36.5%
- Return if right
- 174.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 274.0 shares at 36.5¢ each.
YES wins: $273.97 back, a profit of $173.97. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $200.75.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
NO wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $49.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- 4.4-4.6m sq km33.3%
- 4.6-4.8m sq km37.6%
- 4.2-4.4m sq km18.1%
- 4.0-4.2m sq km5.1%
- 4.8-5m sq km5.3%
- <4m sq km8.0%
Latest: Aug 28, 07:38 AM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- TotalEnergies Exits Russia’s Sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 ProjectYahoo Finance · 18h ago
- Total Eyes $1.3 Billion Loan Repayment as It Exits Arctic LNG 2Bloomberg · 23h ago
- Norway plans further development of Arctic drilling amid EU energy concernsAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- South Korea tests Arctic route with a first container shipped to EuropeFrance 24 · 5d ago
- South Korea sending first container ship through Arctic routeAl Jazeera · 6d ago
- South Korea ship to test alternative Arctic route as Mideast conflict disrupts shippingFrance 24 · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be betwee…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Other outcomes in Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?