Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
YES wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 62.0¢
- Implied chance
- 62.0%
- Return if right
- 61.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.
NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:43 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- El-Sayed split Michigan Democrats. Whether they unify could decide Senate controlNPR · 19d ago
- Michigan Democrat who lost Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed takes aim at Bernie Sanders over Israel stanceFox News · 20d ago
- Jewish AG’s convention boycott exposes deepening Israel fault line among Michigan DemocratsFox News · 26d ago
- Michigan Democrat demands reporters stop asking 'about Hasan Piker' ahead of Senate raceFox News · 28d ago
- Michigan Democrat awkwardly pivots to circumcision during heated Fox News debate on child sex changesFox News · 29d ago
- Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens backs El-Sayed after narrow primary defeat, calls socialism ‘dangerous’Fox News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup S…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Dems' best tossup Senate race?
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