Will the loser of the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary concede by August 12?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 95%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
YES wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $76.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $80.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 86%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $107.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $124.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Hong’s Defeat in Wisconsin Sparks New Disagreements Within Democratic PartyThe New York Times · 2h ago
- Political strategists on Crowley upset of Hong in Wisconsin gubernatorial primaryCBS News · 4h ago
- Key takeaways from Tuesday's primaries, including Crowley's win over Hong in Wisconsin and moreCBS News · 5h ago
- Khanna defends Hong endorsement after surprise loss in Wisconsin primaryThe Hill · 6h ago
- Wisconsin Democratic voters chalk socialist Francesca Hong's stunning loss up to electability concernsFox News · 6h ago
- Wisconsin Democrats chose a middle path – will it lead to victory in November?The Guardian · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the loser of the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between David Crowley and Francesca Hong, the individual who does not win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary concedes in that election by the specified date, at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement that acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary, will not be the Democratic Nominee to be Governor of Wisconsin, or acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession. Any public statement from the relevant candidate written or verbal will qualify. Speeches in which this candidate begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their declaration of concession falls outside the market’s timeframe. In the event that neither of the listed individuals wins the relevant primary, this market will only resolve to "Yes" if both named individuals endorse the winner of the primary. Only public statements from the relevant candidate will qualify. Reports of private conversations, e.g. if the candidate called the victor and conceded over the phone, will not count.