Will the loser of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary endorse the winner by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 74%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
YES wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 2.7¢
- Implied chance
- 2.7%
- Return if right
- 3603.7%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 3703.7 shares at 2.7¢ each.
NO wins: $3703.70 back, a profit of $3603.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2747.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $6351.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Decades of abuse revealed at Michigan art school. And, the Iran war's impact on midtermsNPR · 3h ago
- Bernie's revolution gets a test run for 2028 in Michigan and WisconsinAxios · 17h ago
- Fetterman 'dares' El-Sayed to stick with Piker, claims Michigan nominee has 'little man syndrome energy'Fox News · 20h ago
- El-Sayed spoke with Obama as Michigan Democrats look to uniteABC News · 23h ago
- El-Sayed reveals he spoke with Obama after Michigan Senate primary winThe Hill · 23h ago
- Obama and Abdul El-Sayed Discuss Unity After Michigan Senate PrimaryThe New York Times · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the loser of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary end…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed, the individual who does not win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate nomination endorses the individual who wins the nomination, by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any replacement of the Democratic Party’s nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. An endorsement is defined as a statement that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate in the 2026 Michigan Senate election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement in the 2026 Michigan Senate Election. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support El-Sayed and Rogers”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not be relevant for purposes of this market. In the event that neither Haley Stevens nor Abdul El-Sayed wins the relevant nomination, this market will only resolve to "Yes" if both named individuals endorse the winner of the nomination. The resolution sources for an endorsement will be official statements from Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the 2026 Democratic Party nominee in the Michigan Senate election will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.