Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Q: Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1090.5% over 1.4mo.

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place$83k liquidity$63k volumecloses 1.4mo

PoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsRussia ElectionInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.4¢
Implied chance: 8.4%
Return if right: 1090.5%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 1190.5 shares at 8.4¢ each.

YES wins: $1190.48 back, a profit of $1090.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $59.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $1150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 92.4¢
Implied chance: 92.4%
Return if right: 8.2%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 108.2 shares at 92.4¢ each.

NO wins: $108.23 back, a profit of $8.23. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:30 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted1 further outcome not shown

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.