Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.0¢
- Implied chance
- 3.0%
- Return if right
- 3233.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.
YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $175.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $3408.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.3¢
- Implied chance
- 97.3%
- Return if right
- 2.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 102.8 shares at 97.3¢ each.
NO wins: $102.77 back, a profit of $2.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 01:35 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Labour seeking ‘deeper relationship’ with EU under Burnham, new minister saysThe Guardian · 22h ago
- New Zealand Slaps New Sanctions Against Russia After US MoveBloomberg · 3d ago
- US labour market sheds jobs in July as labour force participation slumpsAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- UK politics: Labour minister denies Burnham ‘too blokey’ – as it happenedThe Guardian · 3d ago
- State representative defeats former House Republican in primary for Rose's open seat in TennesseeThe Hill · 4d ago
- Trump-linked law firm to get $150 million no-bid contract to represent migrant childrenThe Washington Post · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zea…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
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