Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 24.0¢
- Implied chance
- 24.0%
- Return if right
- 316.7%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 416.7 shares at 24.0¢ each.
YES wins: $416.67 back, a profit of $316.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $325.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 77.0¢
- Implied chance
- 77.0%
- Return if right
- 29.9%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 129.9 shares at 77.0¢ each.
NO wins: $129.87 back, a profit of $29.87. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $30.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian diplomats "kicked out" of U.S. after ignoring order to leaveAxios · 8h ago
- UK remands 2 Iranians over alleged antisemitic terror plotDeutsche Welle · 11h ago
- Two Iranian men identified Manchester synagogue as site for alleged bomb plot, court hearsThe Guardian · 14h ago
- UK-Iranian dual national bailed after RAF Fairford incident arrestBBC News · 17h ago
- Two Iranians charged over alleged plot targeting Jewish community in UKAl Jazeera · 23h ago
- U.K. police accuse 2 Iranian men of planning terror attack on Jewish communityCBS News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.