Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 66.0¢
- Implied chance
- 66.0%
- Return if right
- 51.5%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.
YES wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
NO wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $173.97.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.