Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 23, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.9¢
- Implied chance
- 8.9%
- Return if right
- 1023.6%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1123.6 shares at 8.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1123.60 back, a profit of $1023.60. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $218.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $1242.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 12:23 AM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Yemeni government in military and diplomatic push to reverse Houthi gainsAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- How much is UK supporting Saudi Arabia in its war with Iran-backed Houthis?Al Jazeera · 12h ago
- Saudi Arabia’s King Salman slams targeting of Mecca by ‘terrorist’ HouthisAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Why are the Houthis fighting for Yemen’s Kahboub Mountains?Al Jazeera · 1d ago
- Up to 169 killed in Yemen as Houthis battle for Red Sea coastal heightsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Middle East takes center stage at UN as regional leaders confront Iran war, Gaza and Houthi threatFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Other outcomes in Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 13, 2026?
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- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 11, 2026?
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 18, 2026?
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?