Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
YES wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 15.3¢
- Implied chance
- 15.3%
- Return if right
- 553.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 653.6 shares at 15.3¢ each.
NO wins: $653.59 back, a profit of $553.59. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $582.59.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Source: https://agi.safe.ai/
Other outcomes in Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?