Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1966.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $4247.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 83%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:33 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
Other outcomes in Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.6 – 8.7?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.8 – 8.9?
- Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 9.0 or above?