Will the Green Party candidate win 20-25% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $230.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 11:03 AM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Other outcomes in Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?
- Will the Green Party candidate win 25-30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
- Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
- Will the Green Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
- Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
- Will the Green Party candidate win 40% or more of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?