Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.1¢
- Implied chance
- 5.1%
- Return if right
- 1860.8%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 1960.8 shares at 5.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1960.78 back, a profit of $1860.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $261.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.1¢
- Implied chance
- 96.1%
- Return if right
- 4.1%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 104.1 shares at 96.1¢ each.
NO wins: $104.06 back, a profit of $4.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:08 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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