Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
NO wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- In test of Democratic Party's future, next stop is in battleground WisconsinABC News · 44m ago
- National Democrats step up support for Rep. Max Miller’s opponentThe Washington Post · 45m ago
- Democrats Plan New Push to Defeat Max Miller in Ohio After Abuse AccusationsThe New York Times · 55m ago
- LIZ PEEK: A brave Democrat leaves his party as radical socialists take overFox News · 59m ago
- Socialist winning streak puts prized Democratic battleground at risk as radical leftists advanceFox News · 59m ago
- MORNING GLORY: Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary had two winners — but only one was on the ballotFox News · 1h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.