Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
YES wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- The Democrats45.5%
- Yashar68.5%
- Together56.0%
- Likud49.0%
- Ra'am16.0%
- New Economic Party / The Reservists43.5%
Latest: Sep 24, 04:42 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Source: https://main.knesset.gov.il
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