Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.9¢
- Implied chance
- 12.9%
- Return if right
- 675.2%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 775.2 shares at 12.9¢ each.
YES wins: $775.19 back, a profit of $675.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $678.21.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.2¢
- Implied chance
- 87.2%
- Return if right
- 14.7%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 114.7 shares at 87.2¢ each.
NO wins: $114.68 back, a profit of $14.68. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:50 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most hea…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).