Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

Q: Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 6.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1462.5% over 9.2mo.

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory$23k liquidity$16k volumecloses 9.2mo

democratsMidtermsCongressElectionshouse of representativesrepublicans

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 6.4¢
Implied chance: 6.4%
Return if right: 1462.5%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 1562.5 shares at 6.4¢ each.

YES wins: $1562.50 back, a profit of $1462.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $146.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $1609.40.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.7¢
Implied chance: 94.7%
Return if right: 5.6%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 105.6 shares at 94.7¢ each.

NO wins: $105.60 back, a profit of $5.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.21.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 04:20 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.