Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
YES wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $119.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
NO wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $83.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Republican, Democratic strategists on controversial campaign funding ahead of midtermsCBS News · 45m ago
- Johnson turns Democrats’ socialist civil war into new weapon for midtermsFox News · 2h ago
- Decades of abuse revealed at Michigan art school. And, the Iran war's impact on midtermsNPR · 4h ago
- The Campaign Tactics Helping Progressives Win Primaries Ahead of the 2026 MidtermsThe New York Times · 7h ago
- Trump names Will Scharf as White House counsel ahead of midtermsAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- RNC chair predicts GOP retains House, Senate control after midtermsThe Hill · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.