Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 28.0¢
- Implied chance
- 28.0%
- Return if right
- 257.1%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.
YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 56%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 1, 05:23 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship by September 30, 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.