Will the CAQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 28.0¢
- Implied chance
- 28.0%
- Return if right
- 257.1%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.
YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 56%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 27, 08:39 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Exclusive: A leader in Venezuela’s National Assembly engages ‘money doctor’ Steve Hanke for a dose of dollarization medicine in a nation sick from hyperinflationYahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Quebec separatist says no independence referendum while Trump in officeAl Jazeera · 9d ago
- Hydro-Quebec Inks $36 Billion Energy Deal With NewfoundlandBloomberg · 10d ago
- Cowboys Fringants Bassist Is Named Quebec’s Chief ScientistThe New York Times · 26d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the CAQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Source: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca
Other outcomes in Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
- Will the CAQ win 5-9 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the CAQ win 20-24 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the CAQ win 25-29 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the CAQ win 10-14 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the CAQ win 15-19 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?