Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 62.0¢
- Implied chance
- 62.0%
- Return if right
- 61.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.
YES wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
NO wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 02:26 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 18m ago
- Meet the winners of a Paw Patrol look-alike contestCBS News · 35m ago
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Held Rates Steady in Back-to-Back Meetings Since Taking Over in 2026. What His Cautious Start Means for Markets.Yahoo Finance · 1h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s NizhnekamskAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia kill at least 13, authorities sayCBS News · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.