Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.6¢
- Implied chance
- 1.6%
- Return if right
- 6150.0%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 6250.0 shares at 1.6¢ each.
YES wins: $6250.00 back, a profit of $6150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1442.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $7592.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:35 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the Se…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Other outcomes in Bank of Japan Decision in September?
- Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?