Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 30.9¢
- Implied chance
- 30.9%
- Return if right
- 223.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 323.6 shares at 30.9¢ each.
NO wins: $323.62 back, a profit of $223.62. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $228.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 06:48 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Other outcomes in Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?