Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 44%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1785.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.4¢
- Implied chance
- 99.4%
- Return if right
- 0.6%
- Spread cost
- 75%
If you put in $100
You get 100.6 shares at 99.4¢ each.
NO wins: $100.60 back, a profit of $0.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 27, 08:36 PM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm
Other outcomes in August Unemployment Rate
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?