Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $308.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 76.0¢
- Implied chance
- 76.0%
- Return if right
- 31.6%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.
NO wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $32.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 07:36 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- As Treasury yields touch generational highs, investors brace for the market falloutMarketWatch · 2d ago
- Treasury Yields Climb, Adding to Weekly Gains | Closing BellBloomberg · 2d ago
- Bitcoin treasuries may struggle to match Strategy, says AmmousCointelegraph · 3d ago
- Bitcoin treasuries may struggle to match Strategy, says AmmousCointelegraph · 3d ago
- US Treasury Rebound Pulls Yields Off Multi-Decade HighsBloomberg · 3d ago
- Treasuries Rebound as Global Bond Rout ContinuesBloomberg · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
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