Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 8.2¢
- Implied chance
- 8.2%
- Return if right
- 1119.5%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1219.5 shares at 8.2¢ each.
NO wins: $1219.51 back, a profit of $1119.51. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $96.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $1215.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 09:51 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presid…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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