Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum not occur by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.0¢
- Implied chance
- 1.0%
- Return if right
- 9900.0%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 10000.0 shares at 1.0¢ each.
YES wins: $10000.00 back, a profit of $9900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4285.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $14185.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum not oc…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026. If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes." If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails." If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026." If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other." For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).