Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.4¢
- Implied chance
- 6.4%
- Return if right
- 1462.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 1562.5 shares at 6.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1562.50 back, a profit of $1462.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $118.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $1580.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.5¢
- Implied chance
- 94.5%
- Return if right
- 5.8%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 105.8 shares at 94.5¢ each.
NO wins: $105.82 back, a profit of $5.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Tesla Posted Negative $1.1 Billion in Free Cash Flow Last Quarter as Elon Musk Ramps Up Spending on Robotaxis and Optimus. Here's Why the Company's $43.5 Billion Cash Cushion Still Matters.Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- D.H.S. Takes Down Post Depicting Sikh Trucker and Optimus PrimeThe New York Times · 14d ago
- New ‘Transformers’ Animated Short ‘Optimus Prime: Awakening’ Heads to Theaters – Film News in BriefVariety · 22d ago
- Optimus Prime voice actor diesSky News · 28d ago
- Peter Cullen, known for voicing Optimus Prime, dies at 85NBC News · 28d ago
- Actor Peter Cullen, voice of Optimus Prime and Eeyore, dies aged 85The Guardian · 28d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
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