Will Te Pāti Māori win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.4¢
- Implied chance
- 0.4%
- Return if right
- 24900.0%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 25000.0 shares at 0.4¢ each.
YES wins: $25000.00 back, a profit of $24900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15000.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Te Pāti Māori0.3%
- New Zealand First Party39.5%
- Green Party52.5%
- National Party1.7%
- ACT New Zealand2.7%
- Labour Party0.1%
Latest: Aug 10, 01:35 PM
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Te Pāti Māori win the third-most seats in the New Zeala…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Other outcomes in New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
- Will National Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will Labour Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will ACT New Zealand win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?