Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026$123k liquidity$782k volumecloses 2.0mo
AwardsPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
2.4¢
Implied chance
2.4%
Return if right
4066.7%
Spread cost
2%

If you put in $100

You get 4166.7 shares at 2.4¢ each.

YES wins: $4166.67 back, a profit of $4066.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $88.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4155.32.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
97.7¢
Implied chance
97.7%
Return if right
2.4%
Spread cost
2%

If you put in $100

You get 102.4 shares at 97.7¢ each.

NO wins: $102.35 back, a profit of $2.35. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.41.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%2%6%Aug 9Aug 10

Latest: Aug 10, 03:59 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Other outcomes in Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

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