Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Q: Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 77%. A YES share costs 77.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 29.9% over 4.2mo.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?$33k liquidity$309k volumecloses 4.2mo

OilIranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranStrait of Hormuz

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 77.0¢
Implied chance: 77.0%
Return if right: 29.9%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 129.9 shares at 77.0¢ each.

YES wins: $129.87 back, a profit of $29.87. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $30.72.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 24.0¢
Implied chance: 24.0%
Return if right: 316.7%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 416.7 shares at 24.0¢ each.

NO wins: $416.67 back, a profit of $316.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $325.53.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 08:43 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.