Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 65.0¢
- Implied chance
- 65.0%
- Return if right
- 53.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 153.8 shares at 65.0¢ each.
YES wins: $153.85 back, a profit of $53.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $55.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 36.0¢
- Implied chance
- 36.0%
- Return if right
- 177.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 277.8 shares at 36.0¢ each.
NO wins: $277.78 back, a profit of $177.78. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $181.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California govern…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the candidate that receives the most valid votes from Fresno County in the general election for Governor of California, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Fresno County.