Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?

Q: Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?

Prediction markets currently price this at 89%. A YES share costs 89.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12.4% over 4.3mo.

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?$9k liquidity$177 volumecloses 4.3mo

WorldBerlinGermanyPoliticsElectionsWorld Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 21%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

NO wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $115.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 03:11 AM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.