Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.7¢
- Implied chance
- 2.7%
- Return if right
- 3603.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 3703.7 shares at 2.7¢ each.
YES wins: $3703.70 back, a profit of $3603.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $69.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $3673.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Could Morocco’s football chief Fouzi Lekjaa become its next prime minister?Al Jazeera · 19h ago
- Morocco, Algeria reach WAFCON semifinals and qualify for FIFA World CupAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Ceuta Migrant Surge Exposes Morocco’s Economic StrainBloomberg · 2d ago
- Barca cancel friendly in Morocco after Ceuta border crisisBBC Sport · 3d ago
- Aya Gold & Silver expands exploration in MoroccoYahoo Finance · 4d ago
- ‘Morocco feels emboldened’: Trump’s influence in spotlight after Ceuta disasterThe Guardian · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to Morocco (e.g., "this would not have happened if Morocco spent more on border security") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Spanish government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.