Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Q: Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2464.1% over 4.7mo.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?$15k liquidity$435 volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.9¢
Implied chance: 3.9%
Return if right: 2464.1%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 2564.1 shares at 3.9¢ each.

YES wins: $2564.10 back, a profit of $2464.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2197.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $4661.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 86%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:24 PM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.