Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.9¢
- Implied chance
- 8.9%
- Return if right
- 1023.6%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 1123.6 shares at 8.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1123.60 back, a profit of $1023.60. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $856.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $1880.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 77%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 05:10 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Serbian populist leader Vucic launches campaign for prime ministerAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- GOP Reps urge Trump to reimpose sanctions on Russian-owned Serbian refineryThe Hill · 7d ago
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigns amid prolonged protestsAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- Embattled Serbian president resigns, paving way for early electionsBBC News · 7d ago
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces resignationDeutsche Welle · 7d ago
- 🔴 Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigns, expected to run for prime ministerFrance 24 · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parl…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Other outcomes in Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?
- Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?