Will Simon Piotte win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?

Q: Will Simon Piotte win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 50%. A YES share costs 50.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 100.0% over 1.1mo.

Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly Election Winner$62 liquidity$0 volumecloses 1.1mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 50.0¢
Implied chance: 50.0%
Return if right: 100.0%
Spread cost: 65%

If you put in $100

You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.

YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $184.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 94%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $33.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 1, 04:06 PM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Simon Piotte win the next Maskinongé Quebec National As…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

Source: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/