Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 48.0¢
- Implied chance
- 48.0%
- Return if right
- 108.3%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.
YES wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $81.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $189.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 50%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $52.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Serbia's populist President Vucic resigns to run for PMFrance 24 · 7d ago
- Serbia’s snap election: Can Vucic outmanoeuvre the student revolt?Al Jazeera · 7d ago
- Serbia’s president resigns to run for prime ministerAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- Serbia’s Longtime President Aleksandar Vucic Resigns PostThe New York Times · 7d ago
- Serbia’s populist president Aleksandar Vučić resigns to run for prime ministerThe Guardian · 7d ago
- Serbia’s Screen Industries in Crisis Amid Claims That Blacklists, ‘State-Sponsored Censorship’ Are Designed to ‘Starve Independent Production’Variety · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 20…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On September 27, 2026, Aleksandar Vučić resigned as President of Serbia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Serbian presidential election is called by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An election is called when it has been declared under the relevant Serbian electoral, legal, or constitutional procedures, to take place on a specific date, and the date of the election has been publicly announced. A statement of intention to call the election will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Serbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.