Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
YES wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $178.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court. State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.” The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.